Opponent
2 - Long version:
The views expressed by the presenter are for the purposes of debate and do not
necessarily represent his own opinions, nor are they intended to represent in
any way the opinions or other views of the AGHE. Prepared
and presented by Augustine G. DiGiovanna.
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The question being
debated is: Will advocacy for and application of effective and innovative
practices and procedures that increase both mean life expectancy and maximum
life span result in augmented quality of human life for most of the world's
population, or in the universal erosion of the quality of all life on earth?
I speak in support of the latter outcome.
I
base my opposition on several lines of evidence which include the following; (1)
current and projected demographics, especially those pertaining to elders; (2)
the ambiguity and lack of consensus regarding what is meant by "quality of
life"; (3) and the adverse effects of large and growing populations on
multiple aspects of quality of life.
1. Demographics
First, we must recognize facts about present populations and our best
projections about future populations. These projections are based on certain
assumptions, one of which is having a change in mean longevity but having no
change in maximum longevity. When demographers consider the variables and
possible scenarios that affect life expectancy, they conclude with ninety-five
percent confidence that future life expectancies will fall within a certain
range. The first graph shows this range from
birth for US women and men. Note the most likely or "middle series"
life expectancies, and the highest projected life expectancies. The most likely
life expectancy for those born in the year 2050 is only 84.3 for women and only
79.7 for men. The second graph shows this range
for those who will be age 65 in the year 2050. The most likely life expectancies
for those elders is only 87.4 for women and only 85.3 for men. Anyone
considering increasing life expectancies expects to increase them far above the
middle series, and probably far
above even the highest projections shown.
If we succeed in doing this, the demographers' projections about population size
are dangerously low. Moreover, their projections about elders in the population
are especially low. This is because in the US and other developed countries,
survival rates during childhood and young adulthood are already so high that
only increasing survival among older adults can have a significant effect on
life expectancy. You can see this in the survival course in graph
three.
But let's see demographers' population size and age distributions based on only
their "middle series" life expectancies. Graph
four shows that by the year 2050 the US population will increase from
its present 280 million to 404 million and will still be rising. Graph
five-a and graph five-b (Click
here and go to page vi)
show that by the year 2050 the world population will
increase from 6.2 billion to 9.1 billion and will still be rising. Graph
six shows that most of the global population increase will occur in the
developing nations. Most of this increase will occur among adults, especially
among elders. The result will be an extremely high human population made up of a
new and disproportionately high percentage of elders, as shown in graph seven
and United Nations maps.
Any increase in life expectancies beyond these assumptions would only make a bad
situation worse.
2. Quality of life
Now let's look at the meaning of quality of life. One main point here is
that there is no agreement on what "quality of life" means. Of course,
this makes it impossible for anyone to claim that there will be an improvement
in quality of life. But let's at least examine some criteria for quality of
life. The **US government says that quality of life includes a
"general sense of happiness and satisfaction with our lives and environment
that encompasses all aspects of life, including health, recreation, culture,
rights, values, beliefs, aspirations, and conditions that support life
containing these elements." Other descriptions of quality of life include
one's food, physical independence, economic status, social status, social
situation, self-efficacy, self-determination, space, political circumstances,
employment, and exposure to wilderness. I hope you noticed that some of these
criteria are overly vague. Still, the point I will make is that increases in
population size with increases in the percentage of elders will cause a decline
in many, if not all, of these criteria. I have time to address only a few of
these.
a. Health
First, consider health. Many diseases increase in frequency and severity
with increasing age. Even with the current rate of increasing life expectancy
and of medical advances, the number of afflicted elderly individuals is rising
at an ever-increasing rate, as is the percentage of the population afflicted.
Specific examples include eye disorders such as cataracts, age-related macular
degeneration, glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy, and blindness; hearing impairment;
dental disease, arthritis (the leading chronic and disabling condition among
elders), cancer, depression; and dementias, of which Alzheimer's disease is by
far the most common. The incidence of dementia among elders doubles every five
years starting at age 60. Dementia occurs in eleven percent of those 80-84,
twenty-one percent for those 85-89, and thirty-nine percent for those 90-94. At
that rate, increasing life expectancy to age 100 means that more than three
quarters of the population will become demented and remain so for at least
several years. Meanwhile, our resources for preventing, for treating, and for
making accommodations for these diseases are already being outstripped. We
already lack the human, fiscal, and physical resources even to sustain the status
quo. This is true on an individual basis and even more so for diseases that
fall within the realm of public health, such as disease-carrying vectors and
epidemics like AIDS. Sadly, for the past 50 years, AIDS is one of the two main
factors holding the world's population explosion in check. (The other factor is
declining fertility rates.) Increasing mean longevity would also mean general
and widespread declines in health status for elders and, therefore, a widespread
decline in quality of life for elders and for society as a whole. It would also
likely mean new epidemics of transmissible diseases, such as ebola, and diseases
that are now considered rare. Just this last scenario is what has already
occurred with AIDS and Alzheimer's disease.
b. Food
Next, consider food. Ample quality food is necessary not only for survival
but also for a high quality of life. Our food supply comes from agriculture and
harvests from the sea. In many areas, arable land is being lost due to human
activities including urbanization and development, erosion, salinization, and
pollution. Problems like this are now part of living on the Eastern Shore of
Maryland, which is chicken and hog country. Currently, providing adequate food
supply globally is already impossible due to inappropriate public policies such
as tariffs and trade agreements, ineffective food distribution methods, and in
an increasing number of cases, by recurring energy shortages. These factors plus
overharvesting, such as oysters, crabs and fish species, are devastating our
seafood supplies. The Chesapeake Bay is a good example.
In developing countries, problems providing ample quality food are getting worse
faster than in developed countries due to more rapid urbanization and people
choosing diets more like those in developed countries. As a specific example,
increasing the amount of meat in the diet doubles the energy needed for each
calorie of food and increases run-off and animal manure.
Of course, increasing populations make all these problems worse. Moreover, the
faster a population increases, the more rapid, more numerous, and more severe
are difficulties and undesirable outcomes from trying to provide adequate
quality food. Simply stated, we are not feeding our global population now.
Increasing life expectancy means even sooner widespread famine with not only
biological but also political upheavals.
c. Dependency ratios
As people age, they become more dependent on others in a multitude of ways.
Examples include assistance with daily living, health care, food supply, and
economics. The number of young adults needed to care for a given number of
elders is called the dependency ratio.
Both nationally and globally, dependency ratios are now increasing and already
becoming problematic. Since the young adults of the next fifty years are already
born, we know how many there will be to support the future elder generation.
Both the national demographics and the global demographics show that with
current life expectancies, dependency ratios will continue to increase
dramatically. In just 25 years, the global dependency ratio will be 50 percent
higher than it is now because of the increasing numbers and percentages of
elders. One might suggest that a way to reduce this dependency ratio is to
increase in birth rates. However, as nations develop, there is a spontaneous
reduction in birth rates. Even if there were an increase in birth rates, that
would only add to the world's overpopulation problems.
d. Economics
With time running out, I will only mention increases in economic
difficulties that accompany increases in populations, especially those with
increasing numbers and proportions of elders. Who has not already heard much
about these? Prescription drug and all other health care; HMOs and the services
they provide; Social Security; competition for jobs; and poverty among elders,
especially those with fixed or declining incomes. Lurking in the background is
also the fact that those who benefit from promoting technical ways of increasing
longevity will promote spending to bring about such increases, exacerbating all
the problems from an already growing population with rising numbers and
percentages of elders.
e. Ecology
From an ecological perspective, it is impossible to have a sustainable
growing population. Resources such as the basics of food, water, and shelter are
limited, and a growing population will eventually outstrip them. Then either the
population stops growing and sustains its miserable lifestyle or it shrinks,
often with a crash. And nature does not choose high quality of life methods for
reducing populations. The human population is not immune to nature's laws. We
are already experiencing these facts in growing pollution, urban blight,
wilderness destruction, and most frightening of all, the beginning of the
Earth's sixth major extinction. Each year approximately 27,000 species become
extinct with few if any new ones appearing. And extinction is forever!
Conclusion
I will conclude with a paraphrase on the effects of increasing human
longevity vis-a-vis quality of life, and especially for a population with
many elders. "Any technical improvement can only relieve misery for a
while. As long as misery is the only check on the size of a population, the
technical improvement will enable the population to grow, and will soon enable
more people than before to live in misery. The final result of technical
improvements, therefore, is to increase the size of the population, which is to
increase the total sum of human misery." (From: https://fizziker.com/AlBartlett/population.htm,
Reflections On Sustainability, Population Growth And The Environment
by Albert A. Bartlett.)
**(From : https://www.health.gov/healthypeople/Document/html/uih/uih_bw/uih_2.htm,
Healthy People: 2010, page 10, Office of Disease Prevention and
Health Promotion, U.S. Department of Health and Human
Services)
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For
more information - go to the following US Census Bureau site for more
information about US population conditions and predictions.
US
Census Bureau
Go to the following United Nations sites for more information about world
population conditions and predictions.
The State of the
World Population: 2001 - https://www.unfpa.org/swp/2001/english/index.html
World
Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision - https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2000/wpp2000h.pdf
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Prepared and presented by Augustine G. DiGiovanna
Copyright 2002: A.G. DiGiovanna, Professor of Biology, Salisbury
University, agdigiovanna@Salisbury.edu