Should We Extend The Human Lifespan Indefinitely?
(Session 5)
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Opening questions:
Opening quotes about population size: (Go to full
quotes and references)
Quotes about elders:
For discussion
More information:
Complete quotes plus their sources:
URLs as bibliography:
Articles as bibliography:
Stem cells and aging
Opening questions:
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What SHOULD be the
average normal acceptable standard of living for the world’s human
population? What is the desirable goal? U.S. middle class?
Who would a change in longevity affect? ( I suggest that if aging were slowed
and mean longevity increased now or in the near future, such changes would
affect everyone already alive, especially today’s youth. These youth, and
those soon to be born, would expect to be alive well beyond 2025, or even
2050, and possible beyond 2100, if mean longevity were increased
substantially.)
What would happen to the age of menopause if aging is slowed? What
effect would any change have on birth rates, fertility rates, and population
stability?
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Opening
quotes about population size: (Go to full quotes and
references)
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All the projections assume no interference with “natural” life
expectancies due to “normal” aging. There are no projections assuming
altering rates of aging !!
Global population increase is currently equivalent to adding a new Israel,
Egypt, Jordan, West Bank, and Gaza to the existing world total each year.
In the United States, the population is projected to increase by
nearly 130 million people - the equivalent of adding another four states the
size of California - by the year 2050.
According to Census Bureau projections, world population will increase to a
level of nearly 8 billion persons by the end of the next quarter century, and
will reach 9.3 billion persons — a number more than half again as large as
today’s total — by 2050.
More than 1 in 5 people in the world do not get enough to eat.
Each year, an estimated 27,000 species of animals, plants, fungi, and
microorganisms become extinct, taking their ecological services and genetic
secrets with them.
The world's population 'boom' is not a result of an increase in birth
rates, but rather a decrease in death rates.
Two demographic events have occurred in the second half of the
twentieth century that have softened the surge in human numbers. The first is
the progressive decline in fertility levels that has occurred, ……… The
second event is the emergence of the global HIV/AIDS pandemic, ……..
Though a fertility rate of 2.0 seems to provide population stability, it does
not have this effect until approximately 70 years after the fertility rate
drops to 2.0 because of the “demographic momentum” effect.
The future of human population growth has been determined, and is now largely
being decided, in the world’s less developed nations (LDCs).
If the only ultimate
check on the growth of population is misery, then the population will grow
until it is miserable enough to stop its growth.
The per capita use of all
resources and production of wastes and pollution are MUCH higher as
developmental level increases. (e.g., energy, food, pollutants)
Americans constitute 5% of the world's population but consume 24% of
the world's energy.
How Many People Can the Earth
Support?
2 billion...
Everyone at the current U.S. standard of living and with all the health,
nutrition, personal dignity and freedom that most Americans currently enjoy
6 billion
(the current world population)... Only people in the U.S. and Europe at
current U.S., France, Great Britain, German, and Scandinavian levels of
affluence. Everyone else at the current prosperity level of Mexico
20? billion
... Everyone in the world at Mexico's current prosperity level
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Quotes about elders:
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The number of persons aged 60 years or older is estimated to be nearly 600
million in 1999 and is projected to grow to almost 2 billion by 2050, at which
time the population of older persons will be larger than the population of
children (0-14 years) for the first time in human history.
Because of population aging, old-age dependency ratios will rise in every
major world region during the next 25 years. And the world community as a
whole will face an elderly support burden nearly 50 percent larger in 2025
than in 1998.
Support ratios have important implications for social security schemes,
particularly traditional pay-as-you-go systems, in which current workers pay
for the benefits of current retirees.
The additional health resources required to treat a growing population of
elderly people could also mean that fewer resources will be available to
prevent acute and chronic illness in the general population.
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For discussion
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Factors that influence population size:
Birth rate
Fertility rate
Family planning and use of contraceptives
Reproductive years
- influenced by diverse factors
biological (age of menarche, age of menopause, health
social
economic
religious
Status of women
Immigration and emigration
Poverty rates
Epidemic disease
War
“Natural” death rate
Life expectancy
Factors influencing life expectancy:
infant mortality and life expectancy
childhood mortality and life expectancy
young adult mortality and life expectancy
elder mortality and life expectancy
Factors influencing food supply:
amount of energy needed to produce each calorie of food energy (e.g.,
fossil fuels)
amount of agricultural land
quality of agricultural land
efficiency of crops (e.g., genetic engineering)
public policies
distribution
food choices (e.g., cultural, health status)
vegetable/meat ratios (vegetable food is MUCH more efficient to
produce that is meat)
meat takes more energy input/calorie output
meat -> much more waste (run-off, animal waste – manure, etc.)
Factors influencing quality of life
If the only ultimate check on the growth of population is misery, then
the population will grow until it is miserable enough to stop its growth.
……… any technical improvement can only relieve misery for
a while, for so long as misery is the only check on population, the [
technical ] improvement will enable population to grow, and will soon enable more
people to live in misery than before. The final result of [ technical ]
improvements, therefore, is to increase the equilibrium population which is to
increase the total sum of human misery.
If something else, other than misery
and starvation, can be found which will keep a prosperous population in check,
the population does not have to grow until it is miserable and starves, and it
can be stably prosperous.
Factors that limits to human carrying capacity:
food (amount, quality, distribution)
water (amount, quality, distribution)
space
energy (amount, efficiency of production, waste production)
natural cycles (e.g., water, oxygen, nitrogen, carbon dioxide,
minerals)
disposal of sewage waste water
hazardous waste production (e.g., chemical, radiation)
ecosystem limitations
biodiversity
climate and alterations in global climate
enlargement of the ozone “hole”
quality-of-environment/quality-of-life factors
health care (availability, cost)
population-level determinates of health (e.g., social factors, social
stress, antibiotic resistance, pollution, altering land -> increased pests
and spread of disease by vectors {i.e., insects, parasites}, infrastructure,
policies, economics, health care systems, migrations, spread of communicable
diseases, disease spread by advanced transportation
social factors
political factors (e.g., nationality)
jobs and other economic factors
dependency ratios, (e.g., retirement income, disability income,
health care, social care, education, institutionalization)
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More information:
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Overpopulation -> widespread war, famine, and disease.
Underpopulation may become a problem only in those areas having a low birth
rate, The problem will become an excessive dependency burden. This problem
will INCREASE in ML is increased.
Fertility rate predictions assume no changes in the current predicted life
expectancies. If life expectancies increase, the fertility rate needed to
obtain a stable population must become lower than 2.0.
Fisheries are being over harvested and are declining (e.g., crabs and
oysters in Maryland, shark)
Coral reefs provide biodiversity PLUS protect shorelines and provide nurseries
for other species (e.g., food fish).
In tropical rainforests, approx. three species become extinct per hour. Though
the number is less in non-tropical areas, the PERCENTAGE of species becoming
extinct per unit time (e.g., per year) in these areas is still very high.
EXTINCTION IS FOREVER. Humans are becoming the cause of the Earth’s sixth
major extinction.
Introduction of exotic species usually causes undesirable, if not devastating,
effects on the new habitat.
The per capita use of all
resources and production of wastes and pollution are MUCH higher as
developmental level increases. (e.g., energy, food, pollutants)
Irrigation is temporary because of salinization and water logging of irrigated
soils.
Major diseases posing epidemic consequences
HIV/AIDS, dengue fever, Ebola virus, yellow fever, TB, malaria,
Hantavirus
Problems from overgrazing, irrigation, deforestation for fuel and for
croplands,
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Complete quotes plus their sources:
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When applied to material things, the term "sustainable growth"
is an oxymoron.
Population growth never pays for itself
Pseudo solutions: growth management - smart growth
Pseudo solutions: creating jobs
Boulding's Three
Theorems These
theorems are from the work of the eminent economist Kenneth Boulding. (
Boulding 1971)
First
Theorem: "The Dismal Theorem" If
the only ultimate check on the growth of population is misery, then the
population will grow until it is miserable enough to stop its growth.
Second
Theorem: "The Utterly Dismal Theorem"
This theorem states that any technical improvement can only relieve
misery for a while, for so long as misery is the only check on population, the
[ technical ] improvement will enable population to grow, and will soon enable
more people to live in misery than before. The final result of [
technical ] improvements, therefore, is to increase the equilibrium population
which is to increase the total sum of human misery.
Third Theorem: "The moderately cheerful form of the Dismal
Theorem" Fortunately, it is not too difficult to restate the Dismal
Theorem in a moderately cheerful form, which states that if something else,
other than misery and starvation, can be found which will keep a prosperous
population in check, the population does not have to grow until it is
miserable and starves, and it can be stably prosperous.
(From: http://fizziker.com/AlBartlett/population.htm
Reflections On Sustainability, Population Growth And The Environment
by Albert A. Bartlett
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_______________________________________________________________________
Myth: Rapid population
growth isn't the problem it used to be--in fact, we should be more worried
about the effects of a declining world population.
Myth: We shouldn't worry about population growth since human ingenuity can
overcome any problems. New technologies and the free market will produce
substitutes for any resources in short supply.
Myth: Rapid population growth has produced widespread hunger and famine.
Other
important factors include policies and economic factors, though population is
also important.
Myth: Rapid population growth in the poorer countries condemns those countries
to continued poverty.
Other
important factors include policies and culture, though population is also
important.
Myth: Rapid population growth is the fundamental cause of the world's
environmental problems.
Other
factors include economics, policies, and technology, though population is also
important.
Myth: "Family planning" is just a euphemism for abortion services.
Myth: It would be too expensive to significantly reduce global population
growth rates. Anyway, the United States already spends too much on foreign
aid.
(From : http://www.ucsusa.org/
Union Of Concerned Scientists)
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_______________________________________________________________________
How Many People Can the Earth
Support?
Ross McCluney 8/21/99 ... Full
text here. )http://www.sunpath-designs.com/maxpop/)
2 billion...
Everyone at the current U.S. standard of living and with all the health,
nutrition, personal dignity and freedom that most Americans currently enjoy
1/2 billion
... Everyone at the same affluence level as in 1, but with few restrictions on
commerce, pollution, land use, personal behavior (within current law), etc.
Basically a libertarian, laissez faire economy, with few or no environmental
restrictions. This points out that there is a population price to pay for the
current American way of Commerce.
4 billion
... Everyone at the same affluence as indicated in 1, but with many and
onerous restrictions on freedoms relative to behaviors leading to
environmental degradation. Including: Massive recycling. Driving restrictions.
Restrictions on the transport of food Prohibitions against cutting of trees on
one's property. Limitations on the burning of fossil fuels.
6 billion
... Only people in the U.S. and Europe at current U.S., France, Great Britain,
German, and Scandinavian levels of affluence. Everyone else at the current
prosperity level of Mexico
20? billion
... Everyone in the world at Mexico's current prosperity level
40? billion
... Everyone in the world at the current prosperity level of Northwest Africa
...Increasing population density is inextricably linked to loss of
freedom and losses of choice. In the worst of the above scenarios, we can
forget the Bill of Rights.
(From: http://www.overpopulation.org/solutions.html
Sustainability, Carrying Capacity, and Overconsumption)
______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
In the United States, the
population is projected to increase by nearly 130 million people - the
equivalent of adding another four states the size of California - by the year
2050.
Americans constitute 5% of the world's population but consume 24% of the
world's energy.
More than 1 in 5 people in the world do not get enough to eat.
Each year, an estimated 27,000 species of animals, plants, fungi, and
microorganisms become extinct, taking their ecological services and genetic
secrets with them.
It takes an average of 25 gallons of water to produce a pound of wheat in
modern Western farming systems. It takes 5,214 gallons of water to produce a
pound of beef.
Each person in the industrialized world uses as much commercial energy as 10
people in the developing world.
(From: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/population_bomb/danger/price.html
What Price?
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
The number of persons aged 60 years or older is estimated to be
nearly 600 million in 1999 and is projected to grow to almost 2 billion by
2050, at which time the population of older persons will be larger than the
population of children (0-14 years) for the first time in human history.
One of every 10 persons is now aged 60 years or older; by 2050, the United
Nations projects that 1 person of every 5 and, by 2150, 1 of every 3 will be
aged 60 years or older.
……. the pace of ageing in
developing countries is more rapid, and their transition from a young to an
old age structure will be more compressed in time.
Between 1999 and 2050, the support ratio will decline by more than one half in
more developed regions and by an even larger fraction in less developed
regions. Support ratios have important implications for social security
schemes, particularly traditional pay-as-you-go systems, in which current
workers pay for the benefits of current retirees.
(From: http://www.undp.org/popin/wdtrends/a99/a99note.htm
Population
Aging: 1999)
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_______________________________________________________________________
Elderly people are heavy users of health services …. As the next century approaches, more elderly people will be dependent on fewer people of working age as the source of funding for their care and security. The additional health resources required to treat a growing population of elderly people could also mean that fewer resources will be available to prevent acute and chronic illness in the general population.
(From: http://www.wri.org/wri/wr-96-97/hd_txt2.html
8. Population and Human Development: Population Trends)
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
Major disease spread is promoted by “environmental change and
disturbances to the balance of natural habitats, human demographics and
behavior, international travel and commerce, complications of modern medicine,
microbial adaptation and change, and the breakdown of public health measures”
(From: http://www.wri.org/wri/wr-96-97/hd_txt5.html
8. Population And Human Development: Emerging And Reemerging Infectious
Diseases)
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
The world's population 'boom' is not a result of an increase in birth
rates, but rather a decrease in death rates.
(From: http://www.overpopulation.org/older.html
Population Implosion, Graying of the Population, Population Reduction, and
Negative Population Growth)
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
Global population increase is currently equivalent to adding a new
Israel, Egypt, Jordan, West Bank, and Gaza to the existing world total each
year.
According to Census Bureau projections, world population will increase to a
level of nearly 8 billion persons by the end of the next quarter century, and
will reach 9.3 billion persons — a number more than half again as large as
today’s total — by 2050.
The future of human population growth has been determined, and is now largely
being decided, in the world’s less developed nations (LDCs).
…….. during the 1998-2025 period, the world’s elderly population (ages
65 and above) will more than double while the world’s youth (population
under age 15) will grow by 6 percent, and the number of children under age 5
will increase by less than 5 percent. As a result, world population will
become progressively older during the coming decades. Because of population
aging, old age dependency ratios will rise in every major world region during
the next 25 years. And the world community as a whole will face an elderly
support burden nearly 50 percent larger in 2025 than in 1998.
Two demographic events have occurred in the second half of the twentieth
century that have softened the surge in human numbers. The first is the
progressive decline in fertility levels that has occurred, particularly in the
world’s developing regions ……… The second event is the emergence of
the global HIV/AIDS pandemic, which has raised mortality and slowed growth in
every world region ……..
(From: World Population Profile: 1998, US Bureau of the Census,
Repot/98, US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1999.)
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URLs as bibliography:
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http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/wp98.html
World Population Profile: 1998, US Bureau of the Census, Repot/98,
US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1999.
Population data, graphs, tables,
projections, methodologies, and relevance.
https://www.census.gov/
US Census Bureau
Population data and relevance
http://www.undp.org/popin/wdtrends/wdtrends.htm
World
Population Trends: United Nations Population
UN data on populations and relevance
http://www.wri.org/
World Resources Institute
Population data and relevance
http://www.wri.org/wri/wr-96-97/hd_txt2.html
8. Population and Human
Development: Population Trends
Population data and relevance
http://www.wri.org/wri/wr-96-97/hd_txt5.html
8. Population And
Human Development: Emerging And Reemerging Infectious Diseases
Data about potentially widespread serious diseases
http://www.prb.org/
Population Reference Bureau
Source of many data on populations
http://www.prb.org/pubs/wpds2000/
2000
World Population Data Sheet
Links to summary data on global and regional populations including many
parameters (e.g., life expectancies)
http://www.prb.org/pubs/wpds2000/wpds2000_Population2000-PopulationProjected.html
2000 World Population Data
Sheet
http://www.pbs.org/kqed/population_bomb/danger/price.html
What Price?
Article on consequences of high and growing human populations.
http://www.undp.org/popin/wdtrends/a99/a99note.htm
Population Aging: 1999
UN data on the Earth’s aging populations
http://fizziker.com/AlBartlett/population.htm
Reflections On Sustainability,
Population Growth And The Environment by Albert A. Bartlett
An essay about the science and
logic of sustainable populations, including myths, politics, and economics of
such populations.
http://www.ucsusa.org/
Union Of Concerned Scientists
http://www.overpopulation.org/
A
site about overpopulation with links to “everything” on the subject.
http://www.overpopulation.org/solutions.html
Sustainability,
Carrying Capacity, and Overconsumption
- links to many articles about overpopulation
- includes synopsis of each article linked
http://www.overpopulation.org/older.html
Population
Implosion, Graying of the Population, Population Reduction, and Negative
Population Growth
Data on elderly populations
http://www.overpopulation.org/faq.html
Factoids & Frequently Asked Questions
Concise data on world populations
Articles as bibliography:
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_____________, “Feeding
the World's Population”, (Brief Article), BioScience, May,
2000.
Bretzke, James T., “Legislating Life”, America,
May 29, 1999.
Hollingsworth, William G., “Y6B: The
Real Millennial Threat.(effects of overpopulation)”, (Brief Article), Sierra,
Sept, 1999.
Hopper, W. David, “Introduction: The Future”,
Social Research, Spring, 1999.
Leonard, Mark, “A world without children.(populations are decreasing
in developed countries, leading to speculation that underpopulation, rather
than overpopulation, may be a concern)”,
New Statesman, Oct 11, 1999.
Mcmichael, Anthony J.,
“Globalization and the sustainability of human health: an ecological
perspective” BioScience,
March, 1999.
Moore, Stephen, “Body Count: Population and its enemies.(the
population-control movement is gaining steam)”, National Review, Oct 25, 1999.
Stiefel, Chana, “Population puzzle: is the world big enough? (sustaining
population growth)”, Science World, April 13, 1998.
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© Copyright 2001 - Augustine G. DiGiovanna - All
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