Into the Future - Notes
1. Explain how a survival curves is produced and what it means.
- graph showing the percentages of a newly born
population still alive as the age of members of the population increase
- shows death rates at different times of the life
span
- suggests degree of mortality factors at different
ages of the population
2. Describe changes in survival curves and intensity of mortality factors for U.S. populations during the twentieth century.
- dramatic decrease in childhood mortality factors
and childhood death rates early in the century
- gradual decline in mortality factors and death rates
for elders in the later half of the century
3. Describe possible changes in survival curves and their effects on the total population if there are increases in mean longevity, in maximal longevity, or in both parameters.
- increase in ML -> shift in last part of curve
(survival of adult population) to the right; results in large increase in
number of elders, in percentage of elders, and in total population
- increase in XL -> shift only the tail of curve
(survival of oldest elders) to the right; results in small increase in number
of elders, percentage of elders, and in total population
- increase in ML and in XL -> very great shift in
last part of curve (survival of adult population) to the right; results in very
large increase in number of elders, in percentage of elders, and in total
population
- increase in ML or in ML plus XL would lead to very
rapid increase in population, and possibly overpopulation
4. Discuss implications from the current increases in elders and possible additional increases if ML or if ML plus XL increase.
- examples include all aspects of individual and societal conditions (e.g., housing, food, health care, need for gerontology education, employment opportunities, career opportunities, economic conditions, political conditions, lifestyles, ecological conditions, etc.)
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Salisbury University, Maryland
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