US Census Bureau 2020 census information is at US Census Bureau Reports - 2020 and 2017 .

This page can be used as part of discussions or debates about changing the rate of human aging. It is also a resource for present demographics and possible future demographics presuming different scenarios about rates of human aging, human life expectancy, and maximum longevity. (The relevance of offering this type of discussion in gerontology programs.)

In preparation for a discussion or debate, students or other participants could complete a questionnaire about what they believe would happen, could happen, and should happen as we increase our potential for altering human aging, human life expectancy, and maximum longevity. The questionnaire could be distributed to students as an assignment to be completed before the day a discussion. A similar questionnaire could be distributed after the discussion as an assignment. It could be turned in at a future class meeting for comparison and analysis to help explore if knowledge, opinions or perspectives changed because of the discussion.

Alternatively, students could be assigned to research information about current and potential methods for controlling human aging as well as possible outcomes from using such interventions.

When beginning the discussion or debate, students could hear about (1) potential methods for controlling aging (e.g., caloric restriction, genetic manipulation, organ replacement); (2) possible consequences from altering mean longevity, maximum longevity, or both; and (3) alterative outcomes on population size, age distribution, health status, ecology or many other parameters. The instructor or the students could propose diverse conclusions. Then students could engage in a discussion or debate by raising questions and by contributing insights, opinions and information from different perspectives (e.g., biological, social, psychological, economic, political, ethical).

For additional learning, the instructor could provide written summaries, notes, and bibliographies with current references about what would/could/should happen regarding controlling human aging.

1. How does the US Census makes population projections?
2. What are the current data for present and future demographics?
3a. What are potential methods for changing aging, ML, XL and improving quality of life?
        Diet
        Exercise
        Better diagnosis
        Pharmacy
        Surgery
        Supplements
        Caloric restriction (CR)
        Hormones
        Genetics
3.b. What are possible consequences from altering mean longevity, maximum longevity, or both?
    Quality of life
    Increased mean longevity
    Increased maximum longevity
    Changes in demographics
        Statistics
        Possible societal impact
        US
3.c. Possible conclusions.
4. The relevance of offering this type of discussion in gerontology programs.
5. Additional summaries, notes, and bibliographies.
    Hormones and Aging
    Genes and Aging
    Bibliography 

Demographics projections
1. How does the US Census makes population projections?

        Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100
       https://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0038/twps0038.html

      Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060
      https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf

         The US Census makes three different projections; lowest series, middle series, and highest series. The lowest and highest are the OUTSIDE LIMITS of what is "possible" given the minimum and maximum values used in their equations. These outside limits delineate the 95 percent confidence interval. The middle series are the "best guess" based on their assumptions, including that expected the MLs are in the 80s, and there is no change in an XL of 116 years. Given these assumptions and if MLs or XLs are increased, then the US Census highest projections should be considered extremely conservative if not unrealistically low.
        (1) Making projections is a complex process.
        (2) Some of the important data and equations are in the US Census Bureau computer and are not accessible by the public.
        (3) One cannot simply change one number, such as ML, and get answers because each assumption, such as ML, is developed for each small segment of the population (e.g., age, race, national origin, sex), so there are a multitude (a matrix) of numbers used for each year's projections, and the entire matrix changes for each year. The matrix includes numerous assumptions including birth rates for different types for females (e.g., age, race), death rates for people of different ages and for different family sizes and different economic status, and more. It is difficult to see what might happen if ML or XL were to change to specific values or if death rates for people of different age groups were to change.
       (4) US Census Bureau projections are now available through the year 2100. Since many people being born now can expect to live almost that long.
       (5) Many other projections other than total population {e.g.,  geographic distributions, sex ratios, MLs, age distributions and pyramids, available care facilities, health status, diseases, care expenses} are available from the US Census Bureau.
       (6) The US Census Bureau projections change as years pass due to changing conditions and assumptions.

2. What are the current data for present and future demographics?

Demographics and Populations Statistics

US Census Bureau 2020 census information is at US Census Bureau Reports - 2020 and 2017 .

    Graphs of demographics
        Projected U.S. Population  - 2000-2100 
            The range between the highest and lowest series is the 95% confidence interval.
        Populations of Elders - 1900-2050 
            The changes in the numbers of elders and the percentages of elders at 65+ and at 85+.
        Elders as Percent of Population - 2000-2100 (Middle Series)  
            The changes in elders as percentages of the total population.
        Projected Life Expectancies at Birth - 1995-2050   (Table)
            The 95% confidence intervals and average life expectancies of women and of men.
        Projected Life Expectancies at Birth - 2000-2100    (Table)
            The 95% confidence intervals and average life expectancies of women and of men.
        Projected Life Expectancies at Age 65 - 1995-2050 
            The 95% confidence intervals and average life expectancies of women and of men age 65.
        Age Pyramids (Slow download)  
            The age distributions at different years.
        Survival Curves 1999-2100   
            The present and projected survival curves based on middle series.
        Projected Percent Female Elders 65+ - 2000-2100
            The changes in women as a percentage of the population of elders 65+.
        Projected Number of Females and Males 65 - 2000-2100
            The changes in numbers of elderly women and men.
        Population Ages 25-64 by State - 1995-2025   (Table)  
            The present and projected changes in the distribution of young adults among states. Compare the differences in the present and projected numbers and proportions of elders among states.
        Population Ages 65+ by State - 1995-2025   (Table)  
            The present and projected changes in the distribution of elders 65+ among states. Compare the differences in the present and projected numbers and proportions of elders among states.

    Web Sites for demographic data and graphs
      Topics
      One of the most complete sources
      Another source
      Life tables
      U.S. population
      Health status
      Age distributions and age pyramids
      Geographic distributions of elders
      Global populations

        One of the most complete sources with very diverse types of data, tables, and wonderful graphs,
           see "65+ in the United States: 2010 - Census Bureau"
                https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2014/demo/p23-212.htm
                   U.S. Census Bureau,. P23-212,. 65+ in the United States: 2010,. U.S. Government Printing
                        Office,. Washington, DC,. 2014. Economics and Statistics

US Census Bureau 2020 census information is at US Census Bureau Reports - 2020 and 2017 .

        Another source

                 https://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/popproj.html

        Life tables

               Deaths: Final Data for 2014 : Life expectancy, mortality statistics, causes of death
               https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr65/nvsr65_04.pdf
              National Vital Statistics System
               https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/index.htm

        U.S. Population

US Census Bureau 2020 census information is at US Census Bureau Reports - 2020 and 2017 .

               Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050
               https://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1130.pdf 

               An Aging Nation: The Older Population in the United States
               https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2014/demo/p25-1140.html

               2014 National Population Projections Tables
              https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2014/demo/popproj/2014-summary-tables.html

               Census Data & Population Estimates
               https://www.acl.gov/aging-and-disability-in-america/data-and-research/census-data-population-estimates

•             Data about older adults (age 55+)
•             Population and housing estimates
•             Population projections

               The Nation's Median Age Continues to Rise
               https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2017/comm/median-age.html

               Millennials Outnumber Baby Boomers and Are Far More Diverse, Census Bureau Reports
               https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-113.html

               The Nation’s Older Population Is Still Growing, Census Bureau Reports
               https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/cb17-100.html

               News Releases by Year: This page displays the most recent news releases published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
               https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/by-year.html


        Health status

US Census Bureau 2020 census information is at US Census Bureau Reports - 2020 and 2017 .

               Health, United States, 2016
               https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/index.htm  -  (for previous years, see
              (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/previous.htm)

               Health Information for Older Adults
               https://www.cdc.gov/aging/aginginfo/index.htm

               National Center for Health Statistics
               https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/

               National Center for Health Statistics: Diseases and Conditions
               https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/diseases-and-conditions.htm

               Percent of U.S. Adults 55 and Over with Chronic Conditions: National Center for Health Statistics:
               https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/health_policy/adult_chronic_conditions.htm

       Age distributions and age pyramids

              https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2005/demo/2005-us-region-poppyramid.html and
              https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2000/demo/2000-pop-pyramids.html and
              https://www.census.gov/data/developers/updates.html

        Geographic distributions of elders

US Census Bureau 2020 census information is at US Census Bureau Reports - 2020 and 2017 .

              https://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p23-190/p23-190.pdf

        Global populations

               International Programs Data
               https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/informationGateway.php

               U.S. and World Population Clock
               https://www.census.gov/popclock/

3a. What are potential methods for changing aging, ML and XL and improving quality of life?

One hypothesis is that if the major causes of aging and diseases are reduced or eliminated, they would be replaced by other factors the cause age-related diseases and death. Therefore, it is futile to try to increase ML or XL significantly.

Another hypothesis is that even if people could alter their rates of aging and age-related diseases, many or most people would not do so. Proposed reasons include the following.

    - Affordability
            - Health care costs too much already.
            - The cost of life extension techniques would be too high.
            - Retirement planning is tough enough.
            - People do not want to outliving their pensions or retirement savings.
            - People do not want to keep working for many more years.
    - Diet and exercise recommendations are often ignored. Note the high rates of obesity, especially among youth.
    - Obesity rates are increasing.
    - People have adverse visions of what extreme old age would be like.
    - People follow the wrong advice.

Possible methods for slowing aging and the onset of age-related diseases include the following.

Diet
        Good nutrition is known the prevent many diseases and to correct many others (e.g., atherosclerosis, heart attacks, strokes, diabetes mellitus, osteoporosis, intestinal diseases (e.g., constipation, diverticulosis, cancer)
        The diet for a healthy older person is the same as the diet for a young adult except for adjustments in caloric intake to compensate for the usual age-related decreases in energy demands (e.g., muscle mass, physical activity)

Exercise
        Exercise is known the prevent many diseases and to correct many others (e.g., atherosclerosis, heart attacks, strokes, diabetes mellitus, osteoporosis, intestinal diseases (e.g., constipation, diverticulosis)
        Types of exercises needed for a healthy older person are the same as those for a young adult except for modifications in speed, strength, and coordination to compensate for the usual age-related changes in the skeletal, muscle, and nervous systems.
        We know that at all ages, "Use it or lose it." and also "Use it to improve it."

Better diagnosis
    - better diagnoses are known the prevent many diseases and to help correct many others (e.g., atherosclerosis, heart attacks, strokes, diabetes mellitus, osteoporosis, intestinal diseases (e.g., constipation, diverticulosis, cancers)
    - diagnoses for elders is more complicated because of altered signs and symptoms and because of the higher presence of multiple diseases in each person.

Pharmacy
     - new and better medications and herbal substances are known that prevent many diseases and to help correct many others (e.g., atherosclerosis, heart attacks, strokes, osteoporosis, intestinal diseases (e.g., constipation, diverticulosis, cancers, cosmetic surgery)

Replacement Cells and Organs

             - tissue transplants and organ transplants are known the prevent some diseases and to help correct others (e.g., brain cells for parkinsonism, pancreatic islet cells for diabetics, bone marrow for leukemia and for marrow- destroying diseases and treatments, hearts, livers, skin graphs, skeletal joints, arteries, hearts, inner ears for hearing, cosmetic prostheses)
           - new and better surgical procedures are known the prevent many diseases and to help correct many others (e.g., atherosclerosis, heart attacks, strokes, osteoporosis, intestinal diseases (e.g., constipation, diverticulosis, cancers, cosmetic surgery)
        - robotics, prosthetics replacement organs hips, knees, skin, blood, hearts, bones
        - immune system modifications
            - cell implants
            - organ transplants and replacement (e.g., human donors, animal donors, organ "cloning)
            - implants for the brain  (e.g., dopamine, acetylcholine, embryo brain parts)

Vitamins and minerals
                - except for vitamin E, supplements help only by augmenting a poor diet or compensating for a disease condition (e.g., intestinal, kidney)
                - vitamin E serves and an antioxidant, which seems to help prevent atherosclerosis, heart attacks, and strokes

Antioxidants (synthetic, organic)
              - antioxidants other than vitamin E reduce certain age changes in animal experiments but have not been shown consistently to increase ML or XL
              - oxidants are necessary as useful entities (e.g., neuronal signals, hormonal signals, WBC and immune defense responses).
              - there is inadequate knowledge about which FRs are dangerous and how to specify antioxidant therapy

Caloric restriction (CR)
           - definition in humans vs. ad lib
           - CR is know to increase ML and reduce diseases in many animals including monkeys (e.g., cancers, diabetes mellitus)
           - compliance with CR may be difficult. Note preponderance of overweight and obesity now.
           - would it be possible to use anti-appetite drugs to suppress hunger (possible abuse)
           - CR may have adverse effects on quality of life (e.g., constant hunger, limited energy expenditures (e.g., work, recreation), poor concentration, altered behaviors and personality traits, poorer healing, reduced tolerance of and recovery from serious illness (i.e., lower body reserves)
        - For detailed notes click here.

        Go to Hormones and Aging

                 - hormone supplements have been shown to slow or reverse some age changes and some diseases. However, research shows significant adverse side effects. Hormone supplementation is not yet known to alter ML or XL. Some hormones (e.g., melatonin, DHEA) are not regulated in any way (e.g., production, availability, doses)
             - GH improves muscle and bone and skin but may promote diabetes mellitus and cancers. Exercise helps maintain GH levels and also promotes all the benefits of GH supplements without the drawbacks.
             - Melatonin is a potent antioxidant but also affects biorhythms (e.g., sleep: wakefulness), including rhythms of other hormones (e.g., ADH, glucocorticoids). Some sources of melatonin are contaminated with toxic materials and are unregulated.
             - The normal functions of DHEA are unknown. DHEA may reduce some diseases, but results are inconclusive and controversial. DHEA supplementation produces dangerous by-products.
             - Estrogen reduces some age changes (e.g., bone loss, memory loss) and some diseases (e.g., atherosclerosis, heart attacks, strokes, Alzheimer's) but has adverse side effects for some women (e.g., cancers, blood clots)

        Go to Genes and Aging

        - (e.g., gene therapy, transgenes from non-humans, man-made genes, telomerase)
        - genetic engineering works in animals (e.g., selective breeding, altering genes, "designer" genes from humans, synthetic genes, transgenes from non- humans,))
         - additional effects while altering ML and XL are not well studied or documented
         - correct congenital defects
         - correct late life defects
         - enhance vitality.

3.b. What are possible consequences from altering mean longevity, maximum longevity, or both;

    Should we? Is It Worth The Cost?
            - Species Approach applied to humans (Ethical Cost)
            - Health Resources Needed Elsewhere
            - No Guarantee That Later Years Would Be Better
            - Harvard Study: (East Boston) 47% of >85 Apparent SDAT
        There Is More To Life That This?
            - Spiritual Dimension
            - Patrick Henry

Quality of life

There are different criteria used to establish quality of life.
       - physical independence, medical status, economic status, social status and situation, life satisfaction, self-efficacy, self-determination

Increased mean longevity
   - with or without increasing quality of later life

Increased maximum longevity
   - with or without increasing quality of later life

Possible societal impact from demographic changes (i.e., changes in groups)

Note the projections about HMOs and the cost of health care, Social Security, prescription drugs.

US

     International
          - Global conditions
          - International politics

3.c. Possible conclusions.

4. The relevance of offering this type of discussion in gerontology programs.

    1. Show students ethical implications of altering ML or XL.
    2. Shows interdisciplinary aspects and therefore need for interdisciplinary education for gerontology students. Wouldn't this be a great class discussion in any gerontology course regardless of its special focus (e.g., sociology, psychology, economics, biology, philosophy, etc.).
    3. Provide opportunities for students to progress up Bloom's categories (i.e., knowledge, {name, define, list, describe}; comprehension {explain, interpret, predict, summarize}; application {apply, modify, construct}; analysis {show how or why something relates or works}; synthesis {design an experiment or study, make predictions, use data to support a position}; evaluation {compare and contrast, decide, select the best})
    4. Allows students with different backgrounds, value systems, and backgrounds to contribute and to appreciate the contributions and perspectives of others.
    5. Contributes to more expansive thinking by faculty teaching courses.
    6. Shows need for VERY long range thinking about outcomes from short range changes (e.g., "small" increase in ML and how that could make MAJOR differences within one's lifetime and certainly within the lifetimes of ones children - many college-age folks plan to have children within a few years of their graduation.)
    7. Show students opportunities for and importance of continued research.
    8. Show students importance of being educated about gerontology to be educated citizens and career professionals prepared to address inevitable questions about altering aging and its outcomes.

5. Summaries, notes, and bibliographies with current references about what would/could/should happen regarding controlling human aging.

(no author): "Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths for November 1996." Monthly Vital Statistics Report, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services 45(11) May 15 (1997).

(no author): "Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths for November 1997." Monthly Vital Statistics Report, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 4(12) July 28 (1998).

(no author): "Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970: Part 1." U.S. Department of Commerce, September (1975).

(no author): "Resident Population of the United States: Estimates, by Age and Sex." U.S. Bureau of the Census, August 28 (1998).

(no author): "Sixty-five Plus in the United States." U.S. Census Bureau: the Official Statistics Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, May (1995).

(no author): "Statistical Abstract of the United States 1997." The National Data Book, 117th Edition, U.S. Department of Commerce, October (1997).

(no author): "Trends in the Health of Older Americans: United States, 1994." Vital and Health Statistics, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Series 3: Analytic and Epidemiological Studies No. 30, DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 95-1414 April (1995).

Arking R: "Biology of Aging: Observations and Principles." Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ (1999).

Austad SN: "Why We Age: What Science Is Discovering about the Body's Journey Through Life." John Wiley & Sons, Inc., NY (1997).

Carter WR: A Means to an End: The Biological Basis of Aging and Death." Oxford University Press, NY (1999)

Comfort A: The Biology of Senescence (Third Edition), New York: Elsevier (1979).

DiGiovanna AG: "Human Aging: Biological Perspectives." McGraw-Hill, NY (2000).

Diplock AT: "Will the 'good fairies' please prove to us that vitamin E lessens human degenerative disease?." Free Radic Res (1997) Nov;27(5):511-532.

Gardner P, Rosenberg HM: "Leading Causes of Death by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: United States, 1992." Vital and Health Statistics Series 20: Data on Mortality, No. 29 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 96-1857 June (1996).

Hayflick L: "How and Why We Age." Ballantine Books, NY (1994).

Kilama: WL:  HEALTH CHALLENGES EARLY IN TWENTY FIRST CENTURY SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, LECTURE  DELIVERED AT THE 19TH AFRICAN HEALTH SCIENCES CONGRESS INCORPORATING THE 16TH AJSC, NIMR, TANZANIA ARUSHA 15 APRIL (1998)

Klemera P, Doubal S: "Human mortality at very advanced age might be constant." Mechanisms of Ageing and Development (1997) Nov;98(2):167-176.

Kurian GT: "Datapedia of the United States 1790-2000 America Year by Year" Bernan Press, Lanham, MD (1994).

Lane MA, Ingram DJ, Roth GS: "Beyond the rodent model: calorie restriction in rhesus monkeys." Age (1997) 20:39-50.

Lundh U, Nolan M: "Aging and quality of life. 1: Towards a better understanding." British Journal of Nursing (1996) Nov 14;5(20):1248-1251.

O'Boyle CA : "Measuring the quality of later life." Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. (1997) Dec 29;352(1363) 1871-9.

Olshansky SJ, Carnes BA: "Ever since Gompertz." Demography (1997) Feb;34(1):1-15.

Pickle LW, Mungiole M, Jones GK, White AA: "Atlas of United States Mortality." U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 97-1015 December (1996).

Rowe JW, Kahn RL: "Successful aging." Gerontologist (1997) Aug;37(4):433-440.

Rowe JW, Kahn RL: "Successful Aging." Pantheon Books, NY (1998).

Thurman JE, Mooradian AD: "Vitamin supplementation therapy in the elderly." Drugs and Aging (1997) Dec;11(6):433-449.

Vita AJ, Terry RB, Hubert HB, Fries JF: "Aging, health risks, and cumulative disability." New England Journal of Medicine (1998) Apr 9;338(15):1035-1041.

Ward JA: "Should antioxidant vitamins be routinely recommended for older people?." Drugs and Aging (1998) Mar;12(3):169-175.

Weindruch R, Walford, RL: "The retardation of aging and disease by dietary restriction." Charles C. Thomas, Springfield, IL, (1998).

Weindruch R: "Caloric restriction and aging." Scientific American (1996) Jan 46-52.

Wickens A:  The Causes of Aging. Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers (1998).

US Census Bureau 2020 census information is at US Census Bureau Reports - 2020 and 2017 .

 65+ in the United States - U.S. Census Bureau
 https://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p23-190/p23-190.html

  Administration on Aging
 https://pr.aoa.dhhs.gov/aoa/stats/statpage.html
       Statistics pages

 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
 https://www.cdc.gov/epo/prevent.htm
  Prevention and cost estimates of diseases

 National Center for Health Statistics
 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/

 U.S. Census Bureau
 https://www.census.gov/

 International statistics - U.S. Census Bureau
 https://www.census.gov/ipc/www/

Mortality statistics - National Center for Health Statistics
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/dvs/mortdata.htm

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This page was prepared for and is based on a symposium of the same title at the AGHE meeting in Myrtle Beach, SC, Feb. 26, 2000.
Presider:
    Kenneth Kaloustian, Ph.D., Chair of Biomedical Sciences, Quinnipiac College
Other presenters:
    Donald J. Mulcare, Ph.D., Director of Gerontology Programs, Gerontology Center, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth
    Augustine G. DiGiovanna, Ph.D., Professor of Biology, Salisbury University, Salisbury, MD.

©  Copyright 2020: Augustine G. DiGiovanna, Ph.D., Salisbury University, Maryland
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