Presider:
Kenneth Kaloustian, Ph.D.,
Chair of Biomedical Sciences, Quinnipiac College
Other presenters:
Donald J. Mulcare, Ph.D.,
Director of Gerontology Programs, Gerontology Center, University of Massachusetts
Dartmouth
Augustine G. DiGiovanna,
Ph.D., Professor of Biology, Salisbury University, Salisbury, MD.
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For classroom discussion or debate format, go to Controlling Aging: What Would/Could/Should Happen?
Symposium Outline and Page Index
1.
Questionnaire about controlling aging: what would/could/should happen?
2.a. Information
presented
Demographics
projections
Graphs
Tables
Potential
methods for changing aging, ML, XL and improving quality of life
Diet
Exercise
Better
diagnosis
Pharmacy
Surgery
Supplements
Caloric
restriction (CR)
Hormones
Genetics
2.b.
Possible consequences from altering mean longevity, maximum longevity,
or both;
Quality
of life
Increased
mean longevity
Increased
maximum longevity
Changes
in demographics
Statistics
Possible
societal impact
US
2.c. Possible
conclusions.
3.
The relevance of offering this type of discussion in gerontology programs.
4. Additional summaries, notes, and bibliographies.
Hormones
and Aging
Genes
and Aging
Bibliography
International view
CONTROLLING AGING: WHAT WOULD/COULD/SHOULD HAPPEN?
1. Questionnaire about controlling aging: what would/could/should happen?
To investigate knowledge of and opinions regarding how human aging could or should be controlled.
2.a. Information for us to present
- How the US Census makes population
projections. List the criteria used and the cohort method for population
projections.
Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the
United States: 1999 to 2100
https://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0038/twps0038.html
Projections of the Size and Composition of
the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf
- The US Census makes three different projections; lowest, middle, and
highest. The lowest and highest are the OUTSIDE LIMITS of what is "possible"
given their minimum and maximum values used in their equations. The middle
values are their "best guess" based on their assumptions, including that
expected the MLs are in the 80s, and there is no mention of XLs. Given
these assumptions and if MLs or XLs are increased, then the US Census highest
projections should be considered extremely conservative if not unrealistically
low.
- (1) Making projections is a complex process.
- (2) Some of the important data and equations are in the US Census Bureau
computer and are not accessible by the public.
- (3) One cannot simply change one number, such as ML, and get answers
because each assumption, such as ML, is developed for each small segment
of the population (e.g., age, race, national origin, sex), so there are
a multitude (a matrix) of numbers used for each year's projections, and
the entire matrix changes for each year. The matrix includes assumptions
for things like birth rates for different types for females (e.g., age,
race), death rates for people of different ages and for different family
sizes and different economic status, and more. We are not able to see easily
what might happen in real numbers if ML or XL were to change or if death
rates for people of different age groups were to change.
- US projections are now available to the year 2100. Since many people being born now can expect to live almost that long.
- Many other projections other than total population { e.g., geographic distributions, sex ratios, MLs, age distributions and pyramids, available care facilities, health status, diseases, care expenses} are available from the US Census Bureau..
- Note that projections change as years pass due to changing conditions and assumptions.
Potential methods for changing aging, ML and XL and improving quality of life
"Intercompensating mortality factors"; i.e., if the major causes of aging and diseases are reduced or eliminated, they will be replaced with other factors so it is futile to try to increase ML or XL significantly.
Why many people would not, even if they could!
- Affordability
- Your Money or Your Life
- The Cost Of Life Extension
- Retirement Planning Is Tough Enough
- Outliving One's Pension
- Work Until You Drop?
- Diet, Exercise Ignored
- Obesity & Diabetes
- Sci/Fi Vision of Extreme Old Age
- Science Vs. Snake Oil
- Conspiracy Theory
- Following The Wrong Advice
Exercise
- exercise
is known the prevent many diseases and to correct many others (e.g., atherosclerosis,
heart attacks, strokes, diabetes mellitus, osteoporosis, intestinal diseases
(e.g., constipation, diverticulosis)
- types
of exercises needed for a healthy older person are the same as those for
a young adult except for modifications in speed, strength, and coordination
to compensate for the usual age-related changes in the skeletal, muscle,
and nervous systems.
- Use
it or lose it.
- Use
it to improve it.
Pharmacy
- new and better medications and herbal substances
are known that prevent many diseases and to help correct many others (e.g.,
atherosclerosis, heart attacks, strokes, osteoporosis, intestinal diseases
(e.g., constipation, diverticulosis, cancers, cosmetic surgery)
Replacement Cells and Organs
- tissue transplants and organ transplants are known the prevent some diseases
and to help correct others (e.g., brain cells for parkinsonism, pancreatic
islet cells for diabetics, bone marrow for leukemia and for marrow- destroying
diseases and treatments, hearts, livers, skin graphs, skeletal joints,
arteries, hearts, inner ears for hearing, cosmetic prostheses)
- new
and better surgical procedures are known the prevent many diseases and
to help correct many others (e.g., atherosclerosis, heart attacks, strokes,
osteoporosis, intestinal diseases (e.g., constipation, diverticulosis,
cancers, cosmetic surgery)
- robotics, prosthetics
replacement organs hips, knees, skin, blood, hearts, bones
- immune system modifications
- cell implants
- organ transplants and replacement (e.g., human donors, animal donors,
organ "cloning)
- implants for the brain (e.g., dopamine, acetylcholine, embryo brain
parts)
Vitamins and minerals
- except for vitamin E, supplements help only by augmenting a poor diet
or compensating for a disease condition (e.g., intestinal, kidney)
- vitamin E serves and an antioxidant, which seems to help prevent atherosclerosis,
heart attacks, and strokes
Antioxidants (synthetic, organic)
- antioxidants other than vitamin E reduce certain age changes in animal
experiments but have not been shown consistently to increase ML or XL
- oxidants are necessary as useful entities (e.g., neuronal signals, hormonal
signals, WBC and immune defense responses).
- there is inadequate knowledge about which FRs are dangerous and how to
specify antioxidant therapy
Caloric restriction (CR)
- definition
in humans vs ad lib
- CR is
know to increase ML and reduce diseases in many animals including monkeys
(e.g., cancers, diabetes mellitus)
- compliance
with CR may be difficult. Note preponderance of overweight and obesity
now.
- would
it be possible to use anti-appetite drugs to suppress hunger (possible
abuse)
- CR may
have adverse effects on quality of life (e.g., constant hunger, limited
energy expenditures (e.g., work, recreation), poor concentration, altered
behaviors and personality traits, poorer healing, reduced tolerance of
and recovery from serious illness (i.e., lower body reserves)
- For
detailed notes click here.
- hormone supplements have been shown to slow or reverse some age changes
and some diseases. However, research shows significant adverse side effects.
Hormone supplementation is not yet known to alter ML or XL. Some hormones
(e.g., melatonin, DHEA) are not regulated in any way (e.g., production,
availability, doses)
- GH improves muscle and bone and skin but may promote diabetes mellitus
and cancers. Exercise helps maintain GH levels and also promotes all the
benefits of GH supplements without the drawbacks.
- Melatonin is a potent antioxidant but also affects biorhythms (e.g.,
sleep:wakefulness), including rhythms of other hormones (e.g., ADH, glucocorticoids).
Some sources of melatonin are contaminated with toxic materials and are
unregulated.
- The normal functions of DHEA are unknown. DHEA may reduce some diseases,
but results are inconclusive and controversial. DHEA supplementation produces
dangerous by-products.
- Estrogen reduces some age changes (e.g., bone loss, memory loss) and
some diseases (e.g., atherosclerosis, heart attacks, strokes, Alzheimer's)
but has adverse side effects for some women (e.g., cancers, blood clots)
- (e.g., gene therapy, transgenes
from non-humans, man-made genes, telomerase)
- genetic engineering works
in animals (e.g., selective breeding, altering genes, "designer" genes
from humans, synthetic genes, transgenes from non- humans,))
- additional effects
while altering ML and XL are not well studied or documented
- correct congenital
defects
- correct late life
defects
- enhance vitality.
2.b. Possible consequences from altering mean longevity, maximum longevity, or both;
Should we? Is It Worth The Cost?
- Species Approach applied to humans (Ethical Cost)
- Health Resources Needed Elsewhere
- No Guarantee That Later Years Would Be Better
- Harvard Study: (East Boston) 47% of >85 Apparent SDAT
There Is More To Life That
This?
- Spiritual Dimension
- Patrick Henry
There are different criteria used to establish quality of life.
- physical independence, medical
status, economic status, social status and situation, life satisfaction,
self-efficacy, self-determination
Increased
mean longevity
- with or without increasing quality of later life
Increased
maximum longevity
- with or without increasing quality of later life
Changes
in demographics
(For newer data ,see See
Graphs
of demographics
Projected
U.S. Population - 2000-2100
The range
between the highest and lowest series is the 95% confidence interval.
Populations
of Elders - 1900-2050
The changes
in the numbers of elders and the percentages of elders at 65+ and at 85+.
Elders
as Percent of Population - 2000-2100 (Middle Series)
The changes
in elders as percentages of the total population.
Projected
Life Expectancies at Birth - 1995-2050 (Table)
The 95%
confidence intervals and average life expectancies of women and of men.
Projected
Life
Expectancies at Birth - 2000-2100 (Table)
The 95%
confidence intervals and average life expectancies of women and of men.
Projected
Life Expectancies at Age 65 - 1995-2050
The 95%
confidence intervals and average life expectancies of women and of men age 65.
Age
Pyramids (Slow download)
The age
distributions at different years.
Survival
Curves 1999-2100
The present
and projected survival curves based on middle series.
Projected Percent
Female Elders 65+ - 2000-2100
The
changes in women as a percentage of the population of elders 65+.
Projected Number of Females and Males 65 - 2000-2100
The
changes in numbers of elderly women and men.
Population
Ages 25-64 by State - 1995-2025 (Table)
The present
and projected changes in the distribution of young adults among states. Compare
the differences in the present and projected numbers and proportions of elders
among states.
Population
Ages 65+ by State - 1995-2025 (Table)
The present
and projected changes in the distribution of elders 65+ among states. Compare
the differences in the present and projected numbers and proportions of elders
among states.
Tables of demographics (Slow
download for tables)
Projected
Life Expectancies at Birth - 1995-2050 - All Series
(Graph)
Projected
Life Expectancies at Birth - 2000 to 2100 (Graph)
Population
Ages 24-64 by State - 1995-2025
(Graph)
Population
Ages 65+ by State
Updated changes
in demographics
Topics
Demographics and Populations Statistics
Health
Births, Mortality, Deaths
International data and statistics
Diverse topics
Demographics and Populations Statistics
Population Projections of the United States by Age,
Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050
https://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1130.pdf
An Aging Nation: The Older Population in the United States
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2014/demo/p25-1140.html
2014
National Population Projections Tables
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2014/demo/popproj/2014-summary-tables.html
Census
Data & Population Estimates
https://www.acl.gov/aging-and-disability-in-america/data-and-research/census-data-population-estimates
News Releases by Year: This page displays the most recent news releases published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/by-year.html HealthOverweight & Obesity
https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/index.html Births, Mortality, DeathsNational Vital Statistics System
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/index.htm International data and statisticsU.S. and World Population Clock
https://www.census.gov/popclock/Search for any variable or select:
I. Demographic characteristics of older adults
II. Social characteristics of older adults
III. Economic characteristics of older adults
IV. Psychological characteristics, mental health, and well-being of older adults
V. Physical health and functioning of older adults
VI.
Health care needs, utilization,
and financing for older adults
Changes in demographics
(These are the Web Sites used in the original presentation)Web
Sites for demographic data and graphs
One
of the most complete sources with very diverse types of data, table, and
wonderful graphs is "65+ in the United States" at
https://www.census.gov:80/prod/1/pop/p23-190/p23-190.html
(Broken Link)
Other
good ones are at
https://www.acl.gov//AoARoot/Aging_Statistics/Profile/index.aspx
(Broken Link)
https://www.acl.gov//AoARoot/Aging_Statistics/index.aspx
(Broken Link)
https://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1130.pdf Population
Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to
2050
https://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/popproj.html
(Broken Link)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus05.pdf (especially page xiii and page
70)
Life Tables
https://www.census.gov:80/population/www/projections/natdet-D5.html
(Broken Link)
Statistics
- size of U.S. population
https://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1130/
(Broken Link)
https://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natsum-T3.html
(Broken Link)
https://www.census.gov/population/projections/nation/summary/np-t1.txt
(Broken Link)
https://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natsum.html
(Broken Link)
https://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natdet-D1A.html
(Broken Link)
- size of global population
https://www.census.gov/population/international/
or
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/stories/world-population-day.html
- age distributions and age pyramids
(https://www.biologyofhumanaging.com/Figures/A
- Hfigures/Fig. 1.2 Elders as percentage of the US population - past and
projected.htm)
https://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natchart.html
(Broken Link)
- geographic distribution of elders
https://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/age.html#elderly
(Broken Link)
- health status of population
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/agingact.htm
(Broken Link)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/index.htm
- Health, United States, 2016
(for previous years, see
(https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/previous.htm)
try this - https://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/related_sites.html (Broken Link)
Possible societal impact from demographic changes (i.e., changes in groups)
See the US Census Bureau and the AOA sites above and in the bibliography for projections about economy, social status (e.g., men/women ratios, living arrangements, nursing homes, institutionalization, health care costs).Note the projections about HMOs and the cost of health care, Social Security, prescription drugs.
Medical International
- Global conditions
- International
politics
3. The relevance of offering this type of discussion in gerontology programs.
1. Show students ethical implications of altering
ML or XL.
2. Shows interdisciplinary aspects and therefore
need for interdisciplinary education for gerontology students. Wouldn't
this be a great class discussion in any gerontology course regardless of
its special focus (e.g., sociology, psychology, economics, biology, philosophy,
etc.).
3. Provide opportunities for students to progress
up Bloom's categories (i.e., knowledge, {name, define, list, describe};
comprehension {explain, interpret, predict, summarize}; application {apply,
modify, construct}; analysis {show how or why something relates or works};
synthesis {design an experiment or study, make predictions, use data to
support a position}; evaluation {compare and contrast, decide, select the
best})
4. Allows students with different backgrounds, value
systems, and backgrounds to contribute and to appreciate the contributions
and perspectives of others.
5. Contributes to more expansive thinking by faculty
teaching courses.
6. Shows need for VERY long range thinking about
outcomes from short range changes (e.g., "small" increase in ML and how
that could make MAJOR differences within one's lifetime and certainly within
the lifetimes of ones children - many college-age folks plan to have children
within a few years of their graduation.)
7. Show students opportunities for and importance
of continued research.
8. Show students importance of being educated about
gerontology to be educated citizens and career professionals prepared to
address inevitable questions about altering aging and its outcomes.
4. Summaries, notes, and bibliographies with current references about what would/could/should happen regarding controlling human aging.
(no author): "Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths for November 1996." Monthly Vital Statistics Report, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services 45(11) May 15 (1997).
(no author): "Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths for November 1997." Monthly Vital Statistics Report, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 4(12) July 28 (1998).
(no author): "Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970: Part 1." U.S. Department of Commerce, September (1975).
(no author): "Resident Population of the United States: Estimates, by Age and Sex." U.S. Bureau of the Census, August 28 (1998).
(no author): "Sixty-five Plus in the United States." U.S. Census Bureau: the Official Statistics Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, May (1995).
(no author): "Statistical Abstract of the United States 1997." The National Data Book, 117th Edition, U.S. Department of Commerce, October (1997).
(no author): "Trends in the Health of Older Americans: United States, 1994." Vital and Health Statistics, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Series 3: Analytic and Epidemiological Studies No. 30, DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 95-1414 April (1995).
Arking R: "Biology of Aging: Observations and Principles." Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ (1999).
Austad SN: "Why We Age: What Science Is Discovering about the Body's Journey Through Life." John Wiley & Sons, Inc., NY (1997).
Carter WR: A Means to an End: The Biological Basis of Aging and Death." Oxford University Press, NY (1999)
Comfort A: The Biology of Senescence.(Third Edition),New York:Elsevier (1979).
DiGiovanna AG: "Human Aging: Biological Perspectives." McGraw-Hill, NY (2000).
Diplock AT: "Will the 'good fairies' please prove to us that vitamin E lessens human degenerative disease?." Free Radic Res (1997) Nov;27(5):511-532.
Gardner P, Rosenberg HM: "Leading Causes of Death by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: United States, 1992." Vital and Health Statistics Series 20: Data on Mortality, No. 29 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 96-1857 June (1996).
Hayflick L: "How and Why We Age." Ballantine Books, NY (1994).
Kilama: WL: HEALTH CHALLENGES EARLY IN TWENTY FIRST CENTURY SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, LECTURE DELIVERED AT THE 19TH AFRICAN HEALTH SCIENCES CONGRESS INCORPORATING THE 16TH AJSC, NIMR, TANZANIA ARUSHA 15 APRIL (1998)
Klemera P, Doubal S: "Human mortality at very advanced age might be constant." Mechanisms of Ageing and Development (1997) Nov;98(2):167-176.
Kurian GT: "Datapedia of the United States 1790-2000 America Year by Year" Bernan Press, Lanham, MD (1994).
Lane MA, Ingram DJ, Roth GS: "Beyond the rodent model: calorie restriction in rhesus monkeys." Age (1997) 20:39-50.
Lundh U, Nolan M: "Aging and quality of life. 1: Towards a better understanding." British Journal of Nursing (1996) Nov 14;5(20):1248-1251.
O'Boyle CA : "Measuring the quality of later life." Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. (1997) Dec 29;352(1363) 1871-9.
Olshansky SJ, Carnes BA: "Ever since Gompertz." Demography (1997) Feb;34(1):1-15.
Pickle LW, Mungiole M, Jones GK, White AA: "Atlas of United States Mortality." U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 97-1015 December (1996).
Rowe JW, Kahn RL: "Successful aging." Gerontologist (1997) Aug;37(4):433-440.
Rowe JW, Kahn RL: "Successful Aging." Pantheon Books, NY (1998).
Thurman JE, Mooradian AD: "Vitamin supplementation therapy in the elderly." Drugs and Aging (1997) Dec;11(6):433-449.
Vita AJ, Terry RB, Hubert HB, Fries JF: "Aging, health risks, and cumulative disability." New England Journal of Medicine (1998) Apr 9;338(15):1035-1041.
Ward JA: "Should antioxidant vitamins be routinely recommended for older people?." Drugs and Aging (1998) Mar;12(3):169-175.
Weindruch R, Walford, RL: "The retardation of aging and disease by dietary restriction." Charles C. Thomas, Springfield, IL, (1998).
Weindruch R: "Caloric restriction and aging." Scientific American (1996) Jan 46-52.
Wickens A: The Causes of Aging. Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers
(1998).
65+ in the United States - U.S. Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p23-190/p23-190.html
Administration on Aging
https://pr.aoa.dhhs.gov/aoa/stats/statpage.html
Statistics pages
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
https://www.cdc.gov/epo/prevent.htm
Prevention and cost estimates of diseases
National Center for Health Statistics
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/
U.S. Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/
International statistics - U.S. Census Bureau
https://www.census.gov/ipc/www/
Mortality statistics - National Center for Health Statistics
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/dvs/mortdata.htm
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